yet2.com is thrilled to again sponsor the Clean15, a Canadian competition of clean tech start ups. The purpose is to foster fast proliferation and adoption of Canadian clean technology into industrial, residential and commercial systems. This competition is great for Canada, great for the world, and great for the start ups. yet2.com will help the winners establish corporate partners and route to market.
I’m credited with having a large network of friends. I cant think of anyone in my network that is harder working and produces better results than Dwayne Matthews at Drayton Weissenfels Inc. This guy is a machine, and he is scouring Canada for the best clean tech start-ups. If you are an entrepreneur in Canada, you need to meet Dwayne. Put on your parka and go meet him in Toronto.
Companies deciding whether to move forward now with acquisitions or capital projects should weigh the historical data on the timing of stock market recoveries. One common analysis calculates how many years must pass before the market returns to normal, assuming growth at the long-term average rate of 10 percent annually. In past recessions, however, the stock market came back from the trough much more quickly, with cumulative returns—over the two years that followed it—of 50 to 130 percent. If this pattern holds in the current downturn, companies waiting too long could miss the upside of the rebound.
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This has implications on Open Innovation, start placing your bets now.
I spend a lot of time in Asia, in particular Japan. yet2.com has had an office there for 10 years.
Why? 1) Because so much of the worlds technology and patents are created there; 2) Because so many of the worlds largest companies (buyers of patents and technology) are there and 3) Because it’s a great launching pad into to; Korea, Taiwan and broader China.
I made my first trip to Japan promoting Open Innovation and patent liquidity, in 1999. Since 2000 we have had the same team on the ground – managed by Fujii-san. I was in Japan in December and I was there again last week. Here are a few observations from my trip;
1) The economy is recovering – slowly – but it is happening.
2) Unemployment is still to high.
3) Patent acquisition budgets are growing – and turning back on
4) There is a surprisingly large pipeline of new technologies / product about to be launched.
5) Location based technologies and human/machine interface technologies are of high interest, among others.
6) There is a great 4 mile run around the Royal Palace that is perfect for jet lag.
Makino-san, Fujii-san, Me, Takeuchi-san on Friday 1/29/10
Life is cluttered with noise; from pop up banners to drivle. In between all of this nosie, are the signals that really matter. The ballet recital of my 3 year old. The conversation about public policy with my Dad. The moment of technical clarity on a new biomaterial.
The art of life is optomizing the signal to noise ratio.
The dictionary says friction is ‘a force resisting the motion of surfaces in contact’, but I think there is another type of friction – the friction between capital and great ideas. I think this latter kind of friction is key to economic growth and it’s about to undergo sigificant transformations.
In 1720, if you were bright and ambitious (and free), the only legal way to make money was to either to have rich parents or to spend a life toiling away - and if you were lucky you just might be able to provide for your family. The situation was so bleak that even Ben Franklin, about the brightest those times had to offer, found his best choice was to run away from home and apprenticeship. Fast forward 200 years, friction drops a little with the aid of low tax rates and democracy, and the industrial revolution takes ahold.
In the 1990’s we saw the second drop – an even larger decrease in friction aided by the internet and a rich ecosystem of venture capital – that democratized entrepreneurship. No longer was a life of toil required first – and the world changed so much that a kid named Michael in his dorm room, revolutionized how computers were made and capital found its way to his door step – or students like Larry and Sergey changed how knowledge is indexed and shared. Now, these guys toiled plenty – but there was much less toil finding capital or customers – they toiled perfecting their business models. Ben Franklin would have loved this world.
I predict in 2010 we will see the 3rd, and largest drop, in the friction between capital and good ideas. What are the first signs?
A friend of mine forwarded an interesting article on China by Robert Fogel (U of Chicago economist). Here are the high spots:
▪ Higher education in China is rising dramatically; productivity, innovation, and adoption of technology are directly correlated with higher levels of education
▪ Chinese growth statistics may be underestimating improvements in output, particularly in the service sector; while the problem is not particular to China’s GDP calculations, the rapid growth of China’s service center exacerbates the issue
▪ In the “big” Chinese cities, the standard of living and per capita income “are at the levels the World Bank would deem ‘high middle income’”; don’t underestimate the Chinese propensity to consume
$123,000,000,000,000* - China’s estimated economy by the year 2040.
In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China’s per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a superrich country in 2040.
Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per capita wealth, according to my forecasts, China’s share of global GDP — 40 percent — will dwarf that of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent) 30 years from now. This is what economic hegemony will look like.
* Patents – start filing them now in China. They will matter.
Kids are not as worried about it as we are. Today kids have no issue sharing private details on Facebook or with companies if they get some benefit. Want 100,000 Social Security numbers? Easy, just offer kids a chance to win a fee ipod. Want to know how much walking people do? Easy, create a free iPhone App that lets you monitor your friends real time and collect the data. Want to know just about anything, from any demographic. Just offer them some free benefit for recording it and sharing it.
The next generation does not care much about privacy. HIPPA does not matter to them, neither will purchase history or location or any of the other things that those of us in our 40’s to worry about. I think the line will be drawn at theft of $ or IP. Everything else? Fairgame.
A lot of data is being gathered, but it wont end there. The cable company knows what we watch. The credit card company knows what we purchase, what medicines we take. The GPS in our phone knows how far we drive and how much we walk. Google knows just about everything, and can even predict when we are likely to visit the hospital. So reams of data is gathered on each of us, but it is segmented in a variety of databases. I think governments will allow the data to be shared and mined, anonymized, if it’s for the public good – or if people dont opt out – for commercial benefit.
So, bear with me for one more step. Governments have recently made some progress on food labeling. What if that continued through the food supply chain, and there was true transparency. You could eat a hamburger and know where the meat came from, what growth hormones might have been used, and know what farm the wheat and yeast came from for the role, or where the seeds came from, etc.
To summarize, 1) Concerns about privacy reduce and reams of data are shared, 2) Transparency in our food supply chain are added and 3) Enterprising companies or universities start mining the data looking for patterns or trends – What could this mean?
yet2.com is a great platform for looking into the future because we touch so many different companies and new technologies – in Europe, Asia and North America. We are at the cutting edge – sometimes even the bleeding edge – of many different trends in technology and IP.
On Thursday the 14th of January 2010, 10:00am–11:30am US Eastern Standard Time, we will present 4 new materials technologies. 15 minutes on each.
If you can make it stronger or lighter, you make it better. Find out what’s new from four companies who are making materials stronger, lighter, and especially better. On 14 January, yet2.com continues its successful Conferences To Go™ series of free webinars.
This live webinar features four new technologies and an overview of the market. Not just a lecture, the webinar format offers ample opportunity for interaction with the principals.
REGISTER NOW. The webinar is free, but space is limited. As of this writing, we have 92 companies registered to participate.
Reserve your place at: https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/890984659
Topics and Panelists:
Microscopically reinforced polymers for durability, Tim Bernstein, yet2.com
Unique linear chain extenders for PA/PET/PBT/PLA, Marcel Lubben, managing director, DSM
Vacuum-assisted manufacture of composite parts using resin, Thomas Dugas, project manager, EADS
Injection-molded metals processed on standard injection molding equipment, Gary Arnold, Cool Polymers
Mr. Stern will present opening remarks and overview, followed by the four presentations in order at approximately 15-minute intervals. Each presenter will answer submitted questions at the end of his presentation.
In preparation for the holiday feast, I was running with an accomplished surgeon. The conversation drifted to time management. Actually it was a conversation by a lose definition. He talked and I made sounds like that of a snorting reindeer.
He’s increasingly pressed for lots of little favors, and he has learned to say ‘No’. ’No’ is liberating, and its far better than an ineffective ‘yes’, he said.
As I think back, I’ve heard this from another source, Jim Collins author of ‘Good to Great’. Mr Collins was asked at a conference what things great leaders did and he responded “great leaders all have ‘do not do’ lists”. Heard of a ‘to do’ list?, well a ‘do not do’ list is the opposite.
What does ‘No’ do in Open Inniovation and Venture Capital?
I’m fascinated by the future of computing – Pranav Mistry has seen the future and demos several tools that help the physical world interact with the world of data — including a deep look at his SixthSense device and a new, paradigm-shifting paper “laptop”.
It’s also the kind of innovation that NPE’s (patent trolls) acquire patents around…..
Posted by bendupont 
China – Some projections by Economist Robert Fogel
January 5, 2010A friend of mine forwarded an interesting article on China by Robert Fogel (U of Chicago economist). Here are the high spots:
▪ Higher education in China is rising dramatically; productivity, innovation, and adoption of technology are directly correlated with higher levels of education
▪ Chinese growth statistics may be underestimating improvements in output, particularly in the service sector; while the problem is not particular to China’s GDP calculations, the rapid growth of China’s service center exacerbates the issue
▪ In the “big” Chinese cities, the standard of living and per capita income “are at the levels the World Bank would deem ‘high middle income’”; don’t underestimate the Chinese propensity to consume
$123,000,000,000,000* - China’s estimated economy by the year 2040.
In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China’s per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a superrich country in 2040.
Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per capita wealth, according to my forecasts, China’s share of global GDP — 40 percent — will dwarf that of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent) 30 years from now. This is what economic hegemony will look like.
* Patents – start filing them now in China. They will matter.
Full article is here: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/04/123000000000000?page=0,0&%24Version=0&%24Path=%2F,%20%24Version%3D0&%24Domain=.foreignpolicy.com