A friend of mine forwarded an interesting article on China by Robert Fogel (U of Chicago economist). Here are the high spots:
▪ Higher education in China is rising dramatically; productivity, innovation, and adoption of technology are directly correlated with higher levels of education
▪ Chinese growth statistics may be underestimating improvements in output, particularly in the service sector; while the problem is not particular to China’s GDP calculations, the rapid growth of China’s service center exacerbates the issue
▪ In the “big” Chinese cities, the standard of living and per capita income “are at the levels the World Bank would deem ‘high middle income’”; don’t underestimate the Chinese propensity to consume
$123,000,000,000,000* - China’s estimated economy by the year 2040.
In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China’s per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a superrich country in 2040.
Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per capita wealth, according to my forecasts, China’s share of global GDP — 40 percent — will dwarf that of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent) 30 years from now. This is what economic hegemony will look like.
* Patents – start filing them now in China. They will matter.
Full article is here: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/04/123000000000000?page=0,0&%24Version=0&%24Path=%2F,%20%24Version%3D0&%24Domain=.foreignpolicy.com
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