Yet2com Blog

For the past few years I’ve co-hosted an interesting dinner, where I ask each guest to speak for less than 2 minutes on a way they think the world will change in the next 5 years – that is not obvious.

In December I hosted 70 leaders in a wide variety of disciplines – from horticulture to economics.  The guest list included; 2 Governors, 7 CEO’s of companies of more than $2 billion in revenue, Chief Investment Officers of more than $38 Billion, 11 venture capitalists, etc….so you get the idea.

The 70 ideas were then voted on by each table, and below is a finalist – on ways the world will change that are not obvious.   Please share your ideas on other non-obvious predictions and your thoughts about this one.

——————————————————————————————————————–

In the next 5 to 10 years there will be a ground breaking discovery. It is non-obvious that two significant changes over the last decade or so have set the stage for this event. Surprisingly, these factors have been working against such a discovery most of the 20th century.

For the last 50 years or so there has been significant growth and opportunity at the traditional institutions, think tanks, universities and other areas of higher thinking partly attributable to economic and population growth. If you were creative, bright and passionate, there was a place for you. “Hey come to do research at our University, you don’t even have to teach.”

These institutions, universities and etc. had huge competitive advantage due to economies of scale for ideas, access to resources and an environment to share ideas. If you weren’t within the system you were at a serious disadvantage because individuals could not get access to the necessary cutting edge information. These institutions have been effective moving technology and ideas forward step by step (i.e. string theory), but less successful at ground breaking discoveries.

The unintended consequence of this system has been to deter groundbreaking discoveries often proposed by young individual minds outside conventional structures. The young minds capable of making ground breaking discoveries were accepted into the existing system and comprised by conventional thinking. If they were outside the system they were cut off from the information necessary as a launching pad for ground breaking thought.

It is non-obvious that this structure has changed. Due to economic necessity and improved health, thought leaders will continue working creating less opportunity for new entrants. In addition, the flat lining of population growth in North America, Europe, Japan and even China means that opportunity provided by growth will be limited. This Baby Boom Log Jam (BBLJ) will be especially pronounced at institutions like universities and research centers where experience is valued and free market forces are less prevalent.

Because of the BBLJ, some of the new crop of the best and brightest will be forced outside the traditional path. However, they are no longer prevented from participating as in the recent past. They have access to information, people and ideas through the internet where even the most cutting edge thinking is available. In addition, it can be accessed without having to succumb to conventional thinking. “If you want tenure, job security or respect from your peers you have to think like us.”

Before these structures were in place some of the greatest scientific advances came from young individuals working alone – Isaac Newton, Charles Darwin and Albert Einstein. Why have there been few groundbreaking discoveries or theories on par with the Laws of Physics, Evolution or Relativity since Einstein?

The BBLJ and internet assures that some young great minds will take the unconventional path especially if he/she already has the proclivity to question the status quo and challenge conventional wisdom. Unlike the recent past, these folks will not be cut off from access to necessary information to formulate their ideas.